On Monday, in an article in The Telegraph, Brexit economist Patrick Minford said that the Treasury’s projections of the long-term and short-term effect of a Brexit were “flawed”.
He finishes by saying:
The establishment is wrong over Brexit, as it was repeatedly wrong on major UK policy issues in the past 40 years. Brexit will be a major liberal supply-side reform of the British economy. We should embrace it.
So what if we do “embrace” Brexit?
Manufacturing accounts for 44% of UK exports and directly employs 2.6 million people amounting to 10% of the value of what the UK produces. This excludes the services (catering, maintenance, security etc) needed to run a manufacturing industry, if those are added in manufacturing amounts to 19% of what the UK produces.
According to Patrick Minford the loss of this employment isn’t a problem:
Around half of young adults now go to university, ending up in professions such as finance or law, while the making of things such as car parts or carpentry has hugely shrunk — but there will always be jobs for people without sophisticated skills
So what happens to the 50% of young adults who do not go into higher education or those that do and cannot find employment in professions such as law or finance?
Where will those jobs come from for the “people without sophisticated skills”, as Patrick Minford puts it?
Seems like a good reason to vote to “Remain in the EU” on 23rd June.