What happens if we vote for Brexit?

The Constitution Unit Blog

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The EU referendum could be held as early as June so clarity is needed about what will happen in the event of a vote to leave. In this post Alan Renwick explains Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets out the procedure for leaving the EU. Under it a second in/out referendum of the type floated by Boris Johnson among others is not possible. Anybody suggesting that voters can vote to ‘leave’ safe in the knowledge that they can later change their minds is either playing with fire or manipulating voters disingenuously.

2016 looks likely to be the year in which voters get to decide whether the UK will stay in the European Union.  If David Cameron secures a deal with other EU leaders next month, we can expect to know the referendum date shortly afterwards.  Then the key players will settle their positions and decide their core arguments.  In the run-up…

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If we are to leave the EU we need to be shown WHY Leaving is BETTER.

The Outers want out regardless.

They have no interest in making the EU work and have adopted a game-playing mentality in which winning is all that matters.

The challenge in the real world is to stay in and make the EU ever better. It will always be a work in progress and never perfect, but unless and until anyone on the Outer side shows a better alternative, it is best to remain in and press for progress.

Thanks to John Blackmore a member of one of our groups for letting us use this.

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This is not just about surviving it is about thriving.What are the Leavers proposing that is BETTER than being part of the EU?

Thriving vs Surviving

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Just how big is the Cabinet rebellion, perhaps we just need a sense of perspective?

Widely reported in the UK press today is that Liam Fox claims that “up to” 5 Cabinet ministers will rebel against the UK remaining in the EU.

This is in stark contrast to previous assertions that the majority of cabinet ministers are against the EU. or was it the majority of Tory MPs?

As it stands “up to” a fifth of the Cabinet (that is 5 out of 25 Cabinet members) may vote for a Brexit and there are far less than a fifth ( perhaps 50 according to newspaper reports) of Conservative MPs declaring against the UK’s membership of the EU.

Just where is this massive Tory campaign to get the UK to leave the EU? It seems like a very minority view, a significant minority perhaps, certainly a point of view not to be ignored but a minority nonetheless.

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Referendum campaign – … perhaps, the end of the beginning

We are starting to see where everybody stands now that Donald Tusk has published the EU draft response to the reforms tabled by the UK.

The EUphobes will be satisfied with nothing less than withdrawal from the EU, even though they cannot agree among themselves just what withdrawal means, much less put forward a proposition that we can compare against what we currently have through the UK’s membership of the EU.

Nonetheless, there seems to be the basis of a deal; BUT we do not yet have a deal. There are a couple of weeks to go before the February Council meeting and some of the other 27 member states are still not convinced on all the measures.

The negotiations are still ongoing and while the EU’s draft is seen by many as forming the basis of a deal, there is still much to be done. The Remain campaign should resist the temptation to trumpet something that may yet not be agreed later this month and could still not be agreed at all.

Even when it is all agreed we have to remember that the referendum is about far more than the results of these negotiations. Success or failure in these negotiations, however measured, has always been just a small part of the debate.

It will be about whether the UK is going to engage in the EU and help develop and lead the EU to deal with the challenges of the changing world we live in.

Posted in EU, pro-EU campaign, referendum | Tagged ,

Shout for Democracy

Parliamentary petition to Implement Votes for Life legislation before EU referendum

Posted on Facebook by Lyn Pigney:-

If you, like me and my family, all UK Citizens then as now, have decided to move across La Manche to live, I think this affects you. Or maybe you have family/friends who have made this decision.

Many of us did so relying, whether consciously or not, on a fundamental principle which is now under threat because of the impending Referendum. Because of the 15-year rule, some of us will be denied a voice on whether that principle continues to exist, and even more will be excluded by the date of the Referendum, because as time marches on, more of us will have lived outside the UK for more than 15 years.

I believe that the voice of a UK Citizen is just as valid whether resident in the UK or not and that democracy does not have a time limit.

Many of the rights we have are based on the UK being part of the EU, and a growing number of us will not be able to vote on whether that continues to be the case.

If you’re fortunate enough still to be eligible to vote, please register and vote, not only for yourself but also for those of us who are likely to end up being denied a voice in this potentially life-changing decision.

Whether you’ll be eligible to vote or not, please sign the petition, whether you live outside the UK or not, please sign. Also please share this post and ask as many UK citizens as possible to sign and share. Please don’t forget any individual can sign, whether someone else in the family/household etc. already has or not.

It is about our future, but what it’s really about is democracy, supposedly a fundamental principle of our political process.”

New Europeans are running a survey on voting for expatriates, you can find it here: New Europeans – Expatriates & the 15 year rule

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EU ‘sceptics, ‘philes & ‘phobes and what do the Leavers have as an alternative that is BETTER than the EU?

These words have been much used (and misused) when talking about the UK’s membership of the EU.

In particular the word sceptic, is frequently abused and interpreted as anti.

A sceptic is somebody who does not accept things at face value, has an enquiring mind and wishes to understand the facts before making a decision. There is nothing wrong with questioning something, some of the greatest advances have been made by questioning seemingly immutable facts.

A phile in the context of the EU is somebody predisposed towards the EU. But that doesn’t mean EUphiles are blind to the EU’s failings and are unwilling to challenge the status quo. You will find many EUsceptics among the EUphiles.

Phobes, have an overwhelming and unreasonable fear of an object or situation that poses little real danger but provokes anxiety and avoidance. There are many EUphobes involved in the campaign to get the UK to leave the EU.

It is usually easy to identify the EUphobes: they will chant “Out, Out, Out” at any mention of the EU, they pedantically argue about the difference between the EU and Europe, they “hate” the EU, they won’t engage in the debate about the advantages/disadvantages of EU membership and they refuse to set out their proposals for the UK in the event of a Brexit.

An open debate about the EU and its strengths/weaknesses is to be welcomed, but that is not what is happening at the moment.

We know what we have with the current EU and can assess the impact of that, until the Leavers present us with their alternative view of the UK’s relationship with Europe and the rest of the world we can not assess what the UK will be like if it leaves the EU, much less assess whether a post-BrExit UK is better or worse than the UK’s membership of the EU.

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Daniel Hannan admits there will be freedom of movement after a Brexit – so why is leaving the EU the better option?

It is clear that the Leave campaigners do not have a clear, cohesive idea about what the alternatives to the UK’s membership of the EU are.

One of the main planks of the EUphobes’ argument is immigration.

According to Daniel Hannan, prominent Leave campaigner and MEP, after a Brexit there will still be:

seasonal immigration;

immigration from outside the EU;

immigration from the Commonwealth;

and there will be some (Daniel Hannan did not quantify how much) Freedom of Movement within the EU.

In short nothing substantially different to what there is at the moment,

Perhaps not surprisingly there are some in the Leave campaign who disagree with Daniel Hannan’s view of post-Brexit immigration.

Just what is it that the Leavers are proposing that is BETTER than the arrangements we have at the moment as a member of the EU?

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“Leave/No” campaign confirms that the 1975 EC (Common Market) WAS a political union

As confirmed by the official 1975 “No” campaign leaflet

Frequently EUphobes insist that in 1975 the UK public was deceived about whether the European Community was a political union or not.

We know that Harold Wilson made it quite clear to Parliament in 1967 that the UK was joining with political as well as economic objectives.

Recently some “Leave” campaigners have suggested that, because Hansard was not generally available prior to the Internet, the proceedings of the Houses of Parliament did not constitute telling the public what the European Community was really about.

But the record of the parliamentary proceedings is not the only evidence that the facts about the political and economic nature of the European Community were available in 1975.

As part of the 1975 referendum, Government,  “Yes” campaign and “No” campaign pamphlets were distributed to UK households.

In particular, the 1975 “No” campaign pamphlet made it very clear that the question of being in or out of the European Community was at least as much political as economic.

The headline for the “No” campaign pamphlet was:

THE RIGHT TO RULE OURSELVES The fundamental question is whether or not we remain free to rule ourselves in our own way

So next time somebody says the European Community was not a political union ask them to have a look at the 1975 campaign literature.

 

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What the No campaign said in the 1975 Referendum leaflet.

1975 Referendum NO campaign leaflet

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