Brexit may precipitate both UK and EU break-up

That the economy will suffer after Brexit there seems little doubt.  Even if everything turns out as the Brexiters wish, the very uncertainty will  be enough to slow the economy for years, leaving us running to catch-up and make good the damage.  And the hard evidence that the economy will even do as well, let alone better, after Brexit is, to put it politely, thin.  Shakespeare has Owain Glyndwr (though it could just as well be Boris Johnson in this instance) say ‘I can summon spirits from the vasty deep!’ to which Hotspur (or maybe David Cameron) replies, ‘Why so can I, or so can any man; But will they come when you do call for them?’  We can all say ‘Tomorrow will be glorious.’  But tomorrow may have its own ideas on the matter.

Yet while the economy and well-being of Britons is perhaps the principle reason for voting to remain in the EU on June 23rd, there are plenty of other reasons.

Brexit almost certainly will have a fundamental effect on the political geography of Europe over the medium term.  That includes the UK itself.

To take this latter first: it is almost certain that in the EU referendum the Scots will vote by some margin to remain. In this case the demand for a second independence referendum would be irresistible.  And while no one can predict the outcome of that a majority could well be persuaded that the advantages of remaining part of the EU and a destination for continuing inward investment and European funding outweighed any possible advantage that might accrue from continuing as part of the UK.

Such a break up of the UK would weaken our influence over world events, lessen our ability to negotiate satisfactory trade deals and make the remnant of the UK into an even smaller offshore island.

Then there’s the EU itself.  Britain is one of the EU’s three large member states.  Should Britain leave the EU would inevitably come to be dominated by Germany.  This is not something that anyone wants, even the Germans.   The political geography of our Continent would be tilted in the direction of a single dominant power, something that Britain, down the ages, has fought wars  to avoid.   An EU dominated by a single member state in this way would be unlikely to survive very long and if it didn’t one of two things could happen.

There might be a rush for more harmonisation to create a United States of Europe.  Should this happen Britain (with or without Scotland) could be in the same position as Ireland was in the 1950’s and 60’s, a poor country dominated by its larger neighbour, to whom a great part of its brightest talent would emigrate. London would cease to be a capital that mattered.  Visiting Heads of State would fly straight to Berlin.

Alternatively the EU could become unstable and break-up with countries unwilling to accept German domination and following Britain’s lead by preferring to pursue ‘beggar my neighbour’ policies, in other words to do a Brexit themselves. This would not help prosperity or progress in Europe and given our reliance on the Single Market would gravely damage Britain.

These twin dangers – the break-up of the UK and the break-up of the EU – cannot be discounted and are of themselves vivid reasons to think most carefully of the potential consequences of any Brexit vote.  Vote Leave’s slogan of ‘Take Control’ is highly misleading.  Far from controlling events we could find ourselves precipitated into an unforeseen maelstrom of events in which our notional ‘control’ was of no help at all.

Once again with thanks to Peter Sain ley Berry a member of the one of the Say Yes 2 Europe – Remain in the EU groups.

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Shouldn’t your friends warn you if they think you’re heading into danger? Of course they should!

Wouldn't you want to be warned

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Caught by the Headmaster not having done their homework!

I have commented before on how watching Boris Johnson answering the Commons Treasury Select committee made me think of being at school and somebody in the class being caught out not having done their homework.

Watching Dominic Cummings being “tested” by the same committee only confirmed the impression that the Brexiters are trying to skate through the exams without having even read the set books.

It was the body language as much as anything. When asked a question there was shuffling of papers or twitching of shirt cuffs combined with a hesitant and lacking-in-facts delivery.

Who did they think they were going to convince with a performance such as this?

A 12 year old facing down the school teacher and attempting such bravado in front of his chums would not have been rewarded with slaps on the back and tuck shop treats from their classmates.

About the only thing the two of them didn’t try was the “Sorry sir, our dog ate my homework book”.

But perhaps they couldn’t agree whether it was a Canadian Labrador, a Norwegian Elkhound, a Swiss St. Bernard or just a WTO mongrel!

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Update: High Court to hear Brits’ Brexit legal case on Wednesday 20 April

A High Court hearing into the rights of up to 2 million Britons in Europe to vote in the EU referendum will take place on Wednesday 20th April 2016.

Two judges at the High Court in London will hear arguments against legislation that excludes British people living in the European Union, but outside the UK for more than 15 years, from voting in June.

The ‘rolled up’ judicial review hearing will begin on Wednesday with a possibility of it extending into Monday 25th April if a second day is required to hear arguments.

Leigh Day, the lawyers for the claimants, requested an urgent hearing at which both the permission to apply for a judicial review can be held, and if successful and permission is granted, a substantive hearing will follow immediately after.

Attending the hearing will be Jacquelyn MacLennan, one of the claimants, as well as Charlotte Oliver, an English lawyer based in Rome who runs her own practice in the Italian Capital and supports the legal action being taken. Mr Shindler will not be attending the hearing.

Background 

Lawyer for the claimants, Leigh Day, have expressed the wish for fast track legislation to be put through Parliament so that the referendum should not be delayed.

Leigh Day is acting on behalf of 94-year-old Harry Shindler, a Second World War veteran who lives in Italy, and lawyer and Belgian resident Jacquelyn MacLennan. Both claim that under the EU Referendum Act 2015 they are being unlawfully denied the right to vote on the UK’s continued membership of the EU.

Despite the Conservative 2015 manifesto including the pledge to introduce votes for life, scrapping the rule that bars British citizens who have lived abroad for more than 15 years from voting, the UK government have not proposed any legislation to reverse this ‘undemocratic’ rule ahead of this Summer’s crucial vote on whether the United Kingdom remains in the EU.

At the hearing lawyers for the claimants will argue that excluding British citizens who have lived elsewhere in the EU for more than 15 years acts as a disincentive from, and a penalty for, their exercising their free movement rights. It also prevents them from participating in a democratic process, the result of which might bring to an end the very EU law rights on which they rely and base their working lives.

According to lawyers for the claimants, the judicial review of the legislation, if successful, should require the Government to rush through amending legislation to change the franchise for the forthcoming referendum in June 2016.

According to lawyers there is precedent for such fast track legislation going through Parliament in a matter of days, they point to the the Data Retention and Investigatory Powers Act 2014 which received Royal Assent on 17 July 2014 after being introduced before Parliament just three days before, on 14 July 2014, in response to a European Court decision that declared the Data Retention Directive to be invalid.

Richard Stein, the lawyer from Leigh Day representing the claimants, said: “We believe that the Government has the time now to amend the franchise and empower the many British people who have lived outside the UK for over 15 years who want to vote on decisions which will have a very real impact on their lives.

“This legal action should not delay the referendum, the Government should instead stand by its promises and give a ‘vote for life’ to British citizens.”

-ENDS-

Posted in brexit, expatriates, UK citizens, VotesforLife | Tagged , ,

The Government’s case for the UK to Remain in the EU

The Government have published a document on why it believes the UK should Remain in the EU.

Why the Government believes that voting to Remain in the European Union is the best decision for the UK

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Brexit High Court hearing in legal action over expats exclusion

7 April 2016

Brexit High Court hearing in legal action over expats exclusion

The High Court has agreed to hear arguments in the legal challenge against the UK Government over its decision to exclude up to 2 million British people living in the European Union from the right to vote in June’s EU Referendum.

A ‘rolled up’ hearing will take place later this month at which both the permission to apply for a judicial review will be held, and if successful and permission is granted, a substantive hearing will follow immediately after.

Lawyers for the claimants, Leigh Day, have expressed the wish for fast track legislation to be put through Parliament so that the referendum should not be delayed.

Leigh Day is acting on behalf of 94-year-old Harry Shindler, a Second World War veteran who lives in Italy, and lawyer and Belgian resident Jacquelyn MacLennan. Both claim that under the EU Referendum Act 2015 they are being denied the right to vote on the UK’s continued membership of the EU.

Despite the Conservative 2015 manifesto including the pledge to introduce votes for life, scrapping the rule that bars British citizens who have lived abroad for more than 15 years from voting, the UK government have not proposed any legislation to reverse this ‘undemocratic’ rule ahead of this Summer’s crucial vote on whether the United Kingdom remains in the EU.

At the hearing, an exact date for which has yet to be agreed, lawyers for the claimants will argue that excluding UK expats who have lived elsewhere in the EU for more than 15 years acts as a disincentive from, and a penalty for, their exercising their free movement rights.

It also prevents them from participating in a democratic process, the result of which might bring to an end the very EU law rights on which they rely and base their working lives.

According to Richard Stein, the lawyer for the claimants, the judicial review of the legislation, if successful, should require the Government to rush through amending legislation to change the franchise for the forthcoming referendum in June 2016.

According to lawyers there is precedent for such fast track legislation going through Parliament in a matter of days, they point to the the Data Retention and Investigatory Powers Act 2014 which received Royal Assent on 17 July 2014 after being introduced before Parliament just three days before, on 14 July 2014, in response to a European Court decision that declared the Data Retention Directive to be invalid.

Richard Stein, the lawyer from Leigh Day representing the claimants, said:

“We believe that the Government has the time now to amend the franchise and empower the many expats who have lived outside the UK for over 15 years who want to vote on decisions which will have a very real impact on their lives.

“This legal action should not delay the referendum, the Government should instead stand by its promises and give a ‘vote for life’ to British citizens.”

-ENDS-

The hearing is to be scheduled for 1.5 days within the week beginning 18th or 25th April. Exact date to be confirmed.

For all media enquiries please contact pressoffice@leighday.co.uk

 

Posted in brexit, expatriates, referendum, UK citizens, VotesforLife | Tagged , , , ,

Things are not always greener on the other side.

Thanks to Paul Wild a member of one of the Say Yes 2 Europe – Remain in the EU groups

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